How to calculate hand odds
Posted on November 25, 2007
Filed Under Poker, Poker Strategy
Now that you’ve learned the proper way of calculating hand odds in Texas Hold’em, there is a shortcut that makes it much easier to calculate odds:
After you find the number of outs you have, multiply by 4 and you will get a close estimate to the percentage of hitting that hand from the Flop. Multiply by 2 instead to get a percentage estimate from the Turn. You can see these figures for yourself below:
| Sample Outs and Percentages from Above Chart | |||||
| 4 | 9% | 17% | 10 | 5 | Inside Straight / Two Pair to Full House |
| 6 | 13% | 24% | 6.7 | 3.2 | No Pair to Pair / Two Overcards |
As you can see, this is a much easier method of finding your percentage odds. But what about ratio odds? This is still done using this formula:
However, we can rephrase this equation so that your brain might process it a bit more easily:
Using 100 divided by the whole percentage number, such as 24%, we can easily see that 100/24 is equal to about 4. We minus 1 from that and get a rough estimate of our odds at about 3:1. Let’s try this all the way through with an example:
You hold: A♣ J♠
Flop is: 5♣ T♦ K♦
Total Outs: 4 Queens (Inside Straight) + 3 Aces (Overcard) - Q♦ or A♦ = 5 Outs
Percentage for Draw = 5 Outs × 4 = 20%
Odds = (100 / 20) - 1
= 5 - 1
= 4:1
Again, 4:1 odds means that can expect to make your draw 1 out of every 5 times. If the 1 out of 5 doesn’t make a ton of sense to you, think about the 1:1 odds of flipping heads or tails on a coin. You’ll flip heads 50% of the time, so 1 out of every 2 times it’ll come up heads.
Pot Odds and Poker Odds:
Now that you know how to calculate poker odds in terms of hand odds, you’re probably wondering “what am I going to need it for?” That’s a good question - this is where pot odds come into play.
Pot odds are simply the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to how much money it costs to call. If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, your pot odds are 100:10, or 10:1. If there is $50 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, then your pot odds are 50:10 or 5:1. The higher the ratio, the better your pot odds are.
Pot odds ratios are a very useful tool to see how often you need to win the hand to break even. If there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, you must win this hand 1 out of 11 times in order to break even. The thinking goes along the lines of: If you play 11 times, it’ll cost you $110, but when you win once, you will get $110 ($100 + your $10 call).
The usefulness of hand odds and pot odds becomes very apparent when you start comparing the two. As we now know, in a flush draw, your hand odds for making your flush are 1.9 to 1. Let’s say you’re in a hand with a nut flush draw and it’s $5 to you on the flop to call. Do you call? Your answer should be: “What are my pot odds?”
If there is $15 in the pot plus a $5 bet from an opponent, then you are getting 20:5 or 4:1 pot odds. This means that, in order to break even, you must win 1 out of every 5 times. However, with your flush draw, your odds of winning are 1 out of every 3 times! You should quickly realize that not only are you breaking even, but you’re making a nice profit on this in the long run. Let’s calculate the profit margin on this by theoretically playing this hand 100 times from the flop, which is then checked to the river.
Net Cost to Play = 100 hands * $5 to call = -$500
Pot Value = $15 + $5 bet + $5 call
Odds to Win = 1.9:1 or 35% (From the flop)
Total Hands Won = 100 * Odds to Win (35%) = 35 wins
Net Profit = Net Cost to Play + (Total Times Won * Pot Value)
= -$500 + (35 * $25)
= -$500 + $875
= $375 Profit
As you can see, you have a great reason to play this flush draw, because you’ll be making money in the long run according to your hand odds and pot odds. The most fundamental point to take from this is:
If your Pot Odds are greater than your Hand Odds, then you are making a profit in the long run.
Even though you may be faced with a gut shot straight draw at times - which is a terrible draw at 5 to 1 hand odds - it can be worth it to call if you are getting pot odds greater than 5 to 1. Other times, if you have an excellent draw such as the flush draw, but someone has just raised a large amount so that your pot odds are 1:1, then you obviously should not continue trying to draw to a flush, as you will lose money in the long run. In this situation, a fold or semi-bluff is your only solution, unless you know there will be callers behind you that improve your pot odds to better than break-even.
Your ability to memorize or calculate your hand odds and pot odds will lead you to make many of the right decisions in the future - just be sure to remember that fundamental principle of profitably playing drawing hands requires that your pot odds are greater than your hand odds.
Comments
Leave a Reply